Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Gabriel Gonzaga
83%
17%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
31
Age
Δ 3y
35
21-5
Career record
Δ 19 pp
18-11
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miocic: 63 sig / 1 TD ·
Gonzaga: 29 sig / 1 TD
Stipe Miocic
Gabriel Gonzaga
35
Sig strikes landed
22
72
Sig strikes attempted
58
58
Total strikes landed
32
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
18-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—