Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Adriano Martins
54%
46%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
37-17
Career record
Δ 8 pp
29-9
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Martins: 13 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Adriano Martins
28
Sig strikes landed
22
64
Sig strikes attempted
41
36
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
Blue corner
W1
Adriano Martins
29-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—