Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Josh Thomson
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
24-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-9
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Henderson: 46 sig / 4 TD ·
Thomson: 19 sig / 4 TD
Benson Henderson
Josh Thomson
52
Sig strikes landed
44
119
Sig strikes attempted
103
81
Total strikes landed
59
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
186s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
24-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—