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Prelims1 Flyweight

Alptekin Ozkilic vs Louis Smolka

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou ·Arena at Gwinett Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Alptekin Ozkilic
Louis Smolka
38% 62%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
28
Age
Δ 5y
22
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ozkilic: 60 sig / 9 TD · Smolka: 92 sig / 0 TD
Alptekin Ozkilic
Louis Smolka
24
Sig strikes landed
37
66
Sig strikes attempted
75
44
Total strikes landed
53
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
206s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alptekin Ozkilic

"The Turkish Delight"
10-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
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Blue corner

Louis Smolka

"Da Last Samurai"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23