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Prelims1 Middleweight

Trevor Smith vs Brian Houston

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou ·Arena at Gwinett Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Trevor Smith
Brian Houston
78% 22%
Why
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
15-11
Career record
Δ 21 pp
4-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Smith: 57 sig / 1 TD · Houston: 30 sig / 1 TD
Trevor Smith
Brian Houston
41
Sig strikes landed
67
72
Sig strikes attempted
160
66
Total strikes landed
61
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
7.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
229s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Trevor Smith

"Hot Sauce"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
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Blue corner
L1

Brian Houston

"B-Hue"
4-7
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—