Main
Flyweight
John Moraga vs Dustin Ortiz
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
·Arena at Gwinett Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Dustin Ortiz
47%
53%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
19-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-8
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moraga: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Ortiz: 35 sig / 2 TD
John Moraga
Dustin Ortiz
34
Sig strikes landed
43
81
Sig strikes attempted
94
49
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
81s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Moraga
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—