Main
Middleweight
Yoel Romero vs Derek Brunson
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
·Arena at Gwinett Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Yoel Romero
Derek Brunson
37%
63%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
14-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-9
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Romero: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 38 sig / 3 TD
Yoel Romero
Derek Brunson
24
Sig strikes landed
28
54
Sig strikes attempted
76
33
Total strikes landed
47
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
32s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W2
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—