Main
Light Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier vs Patrick Cummins
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Patrick Cummins
85%
15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cormier: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Cummins: 8 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
Patrick Cummins
49
Sig strikes landed
30
86
Sig strikes attempted
77
83
Total strikes landed
49
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
295s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33