Main
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald vs Demian Maia
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Demian Maia
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
25
Age
Δ 12y
36
19-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
28-12
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
MacDonald: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Maia: 51 sig / 2 TD
Rory MacDonald
Demian Maia
43
Sig strikes landed
26
89
Sig strikes attempted
66
59
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
7.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
140s
Control time
253s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
19-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—