Prelims2
Lightweight
Rafaello Oliveira vs Erik Koch
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rafaello Oliveira
Erik Koch
41%
59%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
17-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-7
L1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oliveira: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Koch: 19 sig / 0 TD
Rafaello Oliveira
Erik Koch
23
Sig strikes landed
32
56
Sig strikes attempted
72
43
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
204s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafaello Oliveira
"Tractor"
17-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L2
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—