Prelims2
Lightweight
Ernest Chavez vs Yosdenis Cedeno
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ernest Chavez
Yosdenis Cedeno
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Chavez: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Cedeno: 26 sig / 0 TD
Ernest Chavez
Yosdenis Cedeno
37
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
77
54
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ernest Chavez
"EJ"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Yosdenis Cedeno
"Pink Panther"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29