Prelims1
Bantamweight
Cody Gibson vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cody Gibson
Aljamain Sterling
28%
72%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
26
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gibson: 18 sig / 4 TD ·
Sterling: 46 sig / 3 TD
Cody Gibson
Aljamain Sterling
32
Sig strikes landed
38
79
Sig strikes attempted
75
49
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cody Gibson
"The Renegade"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25