Main
Welterweight
Robert Whittaker vs Stephen Thompson
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Stephen Thompson
85%
15%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
27-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-9-1
L1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Whittaker: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Thompson: 38 sig / 0 TD
Robert Whittaker
Stephen Thompson
52
Sig strikes landed
52
145
Sig strikes attempted
132
61
Total strikes landed
54
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
27s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
27-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
Blue corner
W2
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—