Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
TJ Waldburger
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
38
Age
Δ 13y
26
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-10
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Pyle: 56 sig / 4 TD ·
Waldburger: 38 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pyle
TJ Waldburger
21
Sig strikes landed
18
40
Sig strikes attempted
36
37
Total strikes landed
31
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
L1
TJ Waldburger
16-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—