Main
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson vs Omari Akhmedov
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Omari Akhmedov
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
22-6-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nelson: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Akhmedov: 6 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Omari Akhmedov
14
Sig strikes landed
13
29
Sig strikes attempted
42
30
Total strikes landed
23
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W1
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
22-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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