Main
Lightweight
Michael Johnson vs Melvin Guillard
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Melvin Guillard
44%
56%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
26-20
Career record
Δ 5 pp
32-18-2
W2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Guillard: 22 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Melvin Guillard
42
Sig strikes landed
33
104
Sig strikes attempted
86
47
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
52s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W1
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—