Main
Light Heavyweight
Alexander Gustafsson vs Jimi Manuwa
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
Jimi Manuwa
66%
34%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 0"
80"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
18-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6
L1
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gustafsson: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Manuwa: 13 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
Jimi Manuwa
42
Sig strikes landed
38
102
Sig strikes attempted
83
50
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Jimi Manuwa
"Poster Boy"
18-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—