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Main Welterweight

Kiichi Kunimoto vs Luiz Dutra

UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim ·Marina Bay Sands
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Kiichi Kunimoto
Luiz Dutra
66% 34%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
DQ · Round 1
Kunimoto: 12 sig / 0 TD · Dutra: 10 sig / 0 TD
Kiichi Kunimoto
Luiz Dutra
38
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
77
52
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Kiichi Kunimoto

"Strasser"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner

Luiz Dutra

"Besouro"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32