Back to UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim
Main Featherweight

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Sean Soriano

UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim ·Marina Bay Sands
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Sean Soriano
81% 19%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kawajiri: 32 sig / 3 TD · Soriano: 19 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Sean Soriano
36
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
78
49
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tatsuya Kawajiri

"Crusher"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner

Sean Soriano

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24