Prelims1
Welterweight
Ildemar Alcantara vs Albert Tumenov
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
·Arena Jaragua
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ildemar Alcantara
Albert Tumenov
35%
65%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
31
Age
Δ 9y
22
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alcantara: 50 sig / 4 TD ·
Tumenov: 32 sig / 1 TD
Ildemar Alcantara
Albert Tumenov
28
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
63
47
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ildemar Alcantara
"Marajo"
21-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22