Prelims1
Bantamweight
Iuri Alcantara vs Wilson Reis
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
·Arena Jaragua
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Wilson Reis
78%
22%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
35-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-10
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alcantara: 42 sig / 2 TD ·
Reis: 23 sig / 3 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Wilson Reis
27
Sig strikes landed
28
73
Sig strikes attempted
77
49
Total strikes landed
67
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Wilson Reis
24-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—