Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Jesse Ronson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
·Arena Jaragua
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Jesse Ronson
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
36
Age
Δ 7y
28
28-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
21-13
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Trinaldo: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Ronson: 53 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Jesse Ronson
25
Sig strikes landed
25
58
Sig strikes attempted
51
49
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
28-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Jesse Ronson
"The Body Snatcher"
21-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—