Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rodrigo Damm
Ivan Jorge
16%
84%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
14-9
Career record
Δ 19 pp
28-7
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Damm: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Jorge: 63 sig / 0 TD
Rodrigo Damm
Ivan Jorge
43
Sig strikes landed
51
120
Sig strikes attempted
122
58
Total strikes landed
78
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
88s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
84%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rodrigo Damm
14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Ivan Jorge
"Batman"
28-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—