Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Andy Ogle
92%
8%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
37-12
Career record
Δ 19 pp
9-7
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Oliveira: 23 sig / 3 TD ·
Ogle: 21 sig / 1 TD
Charles Oliveira
Andy Ogle
30
Sig strikes landed
18
52
Sig strikes attempted
37
54
Total strikes landed
42
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
188s
Control time
223s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
L1
Andy Ogle
"The Little Axe"
9-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—