Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nick Catone
Tom Watson
45%
55%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
10-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-10
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Catone: 31 sig / 5 TD ·
Watson: 50 sig / 0 TD
Nick Catone
Tom Watson
31
Sig strikes landed
34
63
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
60
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
191s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
10-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom Watson
"Kong"
17-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—