Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Danny Martinez
40%
60%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
W1
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cariaso: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Martinez: 33 sig / 5 TD
Chris Cariaso
Danny Martinez
43
Sig strikes landed
43
86
Sig strikes attempted
101
60
Total strikes landed
58
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
143s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
Danny Martinez
"The Gremlin"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29