Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Kevin Lee
37%
63%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 7"
77"
27
Age
Δ 5y
21
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Iaquinta: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 39 sig / 1 TD
Al Iaquinta
Kevin Lee
47
Sig strikes landed
48
107
Sig strikes attempted
114
60
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21