Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Alan Patrick
47%
53%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
19-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-4
W3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makdessi: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Patrick: 40 sig / 2 TD
John Makdessi
Alan Patrick
35
Sig strikes landed
35
72
Sig strikes attempted
88
38
Total strikes landed
41
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
27s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
Blue corner
W1
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
16-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—