🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Ricardo Lamas
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Ricardo Lamas
86%
14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
33-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-8
W5
Current streak
W4
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 62 sig / 2 TD ·
Lamas: 41 sig / 1 TD
Jose Aldo
Ricardo Lamas
48
Sig strikes landed
38
122
Sig strikes attempted
109
63
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
153s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W4
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—