🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Renan Barao vs Urijah Faber
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Urijah Faber
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
35-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
36-11
W6
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barao: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Faber: 8 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Urijah Faber
67
Sig strikes landed
55
170
Sig strikes attempted
142
85
Total strikes landed
71
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
W4
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
36-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—