Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frank Mir
Alistair Overeem
12%
88%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
18-12
Career record
Δ 10 pp
47-20
L3
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mir: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Overeem: 62 sig / 0 TD
Frank Mir
Alistair Overeem
18
Sig strikes landed
28
34
Sig strikes attempted
49
34
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
113s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Frank Mir
18-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
L2
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—