Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Lineker
Ali Bagautinov
88%
12%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
32-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-6
W4
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lineker: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Bagautinov: 49 sig / 6 TD
John Lineker
Ali Bagautinov
52
Sig strikes landed
41
134
Sig strikes attempted
122
63
Total strikes landed
52
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.4
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
16s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
W2
Ali Bagautinov
"Puncher"
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—