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Prelims1 Lightweight

Abel Trujillo vs Roger Bowling

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 ·Sleep Train Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Abel Trujillo
Roger Bowling
66% 34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Trujillo: 43 sig / 5 TD · Bowling: 9 sig / 0 TD
Abel Trujillo
Roger Bowling
38
Sig strikes landed
25
74
Sig strikes attempted
57
53
Total strikes landed
44
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
131s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Abel Trujillo

"Killa"
15-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
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W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1

Roger Bowling

"Relentless"
12-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
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