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Prelims2 Flyweight

Darren Uyenoyama vs Alptekin Ozkilic

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 ·Sleep Train Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Darren Uyenoyama
Alptekin Ozkilic
45% 55%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
L1
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Uyenoyama: 33 sig / 2 TD · Ozkilic: 27 sig / 3 TD
Darren Uyenoyama
Alptekin Ozkilic
25
Sig strikes landed
27
60
Sig strikes attempted
56
47
Total strikes landed
43
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
207s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Darren Uyenoyama

"BC"
10-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
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W UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
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W UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
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Blue corner

Alptekin Ozkilic

"The Turkish Delight"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28