Prelims1
Lightweight
Danny Castillo vs Edson Barboza
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
·Sleep Train Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Edson Barboza
38%
62%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
18-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
25-14
W2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Castillo: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Barboza: 43 sig / 0 TD
Danny Castillo
Edson Barboza
33
Sig strikes landed
48
88
Sig strikes attempted
104
51
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.1
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
145s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W2
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—