Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Mac Danzig
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
28-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-13-1
L2
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lauzon: 43 sig / 3 TD ·
Danzig: 52 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Mac Danzig
32
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
69
48
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
L2
Mac Danzig
21-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—