Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Nik Lentz
46%
54%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
31-12-2
W4
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mendes: 35 sig / 7 TD ·
Lentz: 40 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Nik Lentz
28
Sig strikes landed
28
57
Sig strikes attempted
59
42
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
W3
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—