Main
Bantamweight
Urijah Faber vs Michael McDonald
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
·Sleep Train Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Michael McDonald
67%
33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
35
Age
Δ 12y
23
36-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-4
W3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Faber: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
McDonald: 9 sig / 0 TD
Urijah Faber
Michael McDonald
34
Sig strikes landed
41
71
Sig strikes attempted
101
56
Total strikes landed
44
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
189s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
36-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
18-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—