Back to UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
Prelims1 Flyweight

Richie Vaculik vs Justin Scoggins

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot ·Queensland Entertainment Centre
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Richie Vaculik
Justin Scoggins
45% 55%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
30
Age
Δ 9y
22

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vaculik: 2 sig / 0 TD · Scoggins: 27 sig / 2 TD
Richie Vaculik
Justin Scoggins
35
Sig strikes landed
38
70
Sig strikes attempted
78
52
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Richie Vaculik

"Vas"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Justin Scoggins

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22