Prelims1
Middleweight
Nick Ring vs Caio Magalhaes
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
·Queensland Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nick Ring
Caio Magalhaes
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
14-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ring: 30 sig / 3 TD ·
Magalhaes: 32 sig / 0 TD
Nick Ring
Caio Magalhaes
34
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
88
60
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
168s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nick Ring
"The Promise"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
W1
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
11-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—