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Prelims1 Middleweight

Bruno Santos vs Krzysztof Jotko

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot ·Queensland Entertainment Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Bruno Santos
Krzysztof Jotko
42% 58%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Santos: 12 sig / 1 TD · Jotko: 17 sig / 1 TD
Bruno Santos
Krzysztof Jotko
29
Sig strikes landed
38
64
Sig strikes attempted
77
49
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
130s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bruno Santos

"Carioca"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Krzysztof Jotko

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24