Back to UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
Prelims2 Welterweight

Ben Wall vs Alex Garcia

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot ·Queensland Entertainment Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Ben Wall
Alex Garcia
38% 62%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wall: 1 sig / 0 TD · Garcia: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ben Wall
Alex Garcia
34
Sig strikes landed
37
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
42
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ben Wall

"Manimal"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Alex Garcia

"The Dominican Nightmare"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26