Prelims1
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki vs Nam Phan
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
·Queensland Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Nam Phan
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
22-11-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-18
W3
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mizugaki: 152 sig / 3 TD ·
Phan: 100 sig / 0 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Nam Phan
92
Sig strikes landed
51
217
Sig strikes attempted
134
95
Total strikes landed
70
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
Blue corner
L1
Nam Phan
21-18
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—