Main
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader vs Anthony Perosh
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
·Queensland Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Anthony Perosh
90%
10%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
30
Age
Δ 11y
41
23-6
Career record
Δ 18 pp
16-10
L1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bader: 70 sig / 3 TD ·
Perosh: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Anthony Perosh
22
Sig strikes landed
12
44
Sig strikes attempted
29
37
Total strikes landed
22
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Perosh
"The Hippo"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—