Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs James Te Huna
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
·Queensland Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
James Te Huna
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-10
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rua: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Te Huna: 1 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
James Te Huna
33
Sig strikes landed
35
74
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
L1
James Te Huna
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—