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Main Heavyweight

Pat Barry vs Soa Palelei

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot ·Queensland Entertainment Centre

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Soa Palelei
16% 84%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
8-8
Career record
Δ 32 pp
23-5
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barry: 1 sig / 0 TD · Palelei: 12 sig / 1 TD
Pat Barry
Soa Palelei
4
Sig strikes landed
23
10
Sig strikes attempted
48
6
Total strikes landed
61
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.4
0.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
27s
Control time
264s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Pat Barry

"HD"
8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
L UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
W UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
L UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
Blue corner
W1

Soa Palelei

"The Hulk"
23-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2