Main
Heavyweight
Pat Barry vs Soa Palelei
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
·Queensland Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Soa Palelei
16%
84%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
8-8
Career record
Δ 32 pp
23-5
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barry: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Palelei: 12 sig / 1 TD
Pat Barry
Soa Palelei
4
Sig strikes landed
23
10
Sig strikes attempted
48
6
Total strikes landed
61
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.4
0.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
27s
Control time
264s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pat Barry
"HD"
8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
W1
Soa Palelei
"The Hulk"
23-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—