Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Main Women's Bantamweight

Roxanne Modafferi vs Raquel Pennington

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Roxanne Modafferi
Raquel Pennington
44% 56%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Modafferi: 42 sig / 0 TD · Pennington: 80 sig / 1 TD
Roxanne Modafferi
Raquel Pennington
41
Sig strikes landed
42
84
Sig strikes attempted
89
73
Total strikes landed
72
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Roxanne Modafferi

"The Happy Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Raquel Pennington

"Rocky"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25