Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Main Women's Bantamweight

Jessamyn Duke vs Peggy Morgan

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jessamyn Duke
Peggy Morgan
82% 18%
Why
27
Age
Δ 7y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Duke: 123 sig / 1 TD · Morgan: 34 sig / 0 TD
Jessamyn Duke
Peggy Morgan
40
Sig strikes landed
40
88
Sig strikes attempted
84
65
Total strikes landed
68
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jessamyn Duke

"The Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Peggy Morgan

"The Daywalker"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
34