Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Main Bantamweight

Chris Holdsworth vs Davey Grant

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Holdsworth
Davey Grant
74% 26%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Holdsworth: 15 sig / 1 TD · Grant: 18 sig / 0 TD
Chris Holdsworth
Davey Grant
45
Sig strikes landed
44
98
Sig strikes attempted
97
82
Total strikes landed
60
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Chris Holdsworth

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
26
Blue corner

Davey Grant

"Dangerous"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28