Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Main Women's Bantamweight

Julianna Pena vs Jessica Rakoczy

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Julianna Pena
Jessica Rakoczy
90% 10%
Why
24
Age
Δ 12y
37

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pena: 33 sig / 2 TD · Rakoczy: 4 sig / 0 TD
Julianna Pena
Jessica Rakoczy
36
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
68
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
192s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Julianna Pena

"The Venezuelan Vixen"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner

Jessica Rakoczy

"The Ragin'"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37